What will happen at COP30 (Belém, 10–21 Nov 2025)? Analysis on fossil fuel companies, global tax reforms, and climate finance goals post-COP28 and COP29.
Keywords: COP30, Global Tax Reform, Fossil Fuel Tax, Climate Finance, International Carbon Price Floor, Bridgetown Initiative, COP28 UAE Consensus, COP29 Finance Goals.
Introduction: The Big Question for COP30
COP30 will be held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025. This COP will be pivotal for countries to submit new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aligned with the 1.5°C pathway. Additionally, COP30 will track the progress made on the finance commitments established in COP29. (unfccc.int)
In this context, Chatham House argues that fossil fuel companies are unlikely to face direct, significant action at COP30. However, global tax reforms – i.e., changes in international tax rules – could serve as a more effective mechanism to hold these companies accountable for their climate responsibilities. (chathamhouse.org)
On the other hand, Reuters shows how the diplomatic momentum is building towards COP30, with the EU already stating that it will prepare new emission reduction targets for 2035/2040 by the time the summit arrives, setting a high political bar for others. (reuters.com)
From COP28 to COP29: The Language of Transition and the Politics of Finance
COP28 (Dubai) led to the historic consensus on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, with calls for tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. These commitments provide the foundation for COP30’s discussions. (unfccc.int)
COP29 (Baku) focused on climate finance, setting a new target to raise at least $300 billion per year by 2035. However, many developing nations considered this insufficient, arguing that trillions are needed for the global climate response. This gap is likely to be one of the most difficult discussions in COP30. (unfccc.int)
What Can We Expect from COP30?
- Updated NDCs (2025): Countries will be under pressure to submit updated NDCs that align with the 1.5°C pathway. The UN’s announcement of the summit dates has already set the stage for preparations. (unfccc.int)
- Ambition Signals: Major players like the EU are already signaling new targets for 2035/2040. If these targets are robust, they could create strong peer pressure on other countries. (reuters.com)
- Finance Delivery Roadmap: There will be a focus on creating a clear roadmap for delivering the $300 billion/year climate finance goal set at COP29. (wri.org)
The political theatre will also be key: which leaders show up at COP30 could set the tone for negotiations. For example, recent reports highlight discussions about whether UK PM Keir Starmer will attend. (theguardian.com)
Will Fossil Fuel Companies Be Targeted Directly?
This is where politics and policy collide. COP decisions are generally focused on national policies (economy-wide), and they rarely target specific industries or companies with direct global taxes or restrictions. Therefore, many experts believe that global tax reforms could be the most effective route to tackle this issue, rules that would impose fair taxes on excessive profits and high-carbon activities. (chathamhouse.org)
4 Key Ways Global Tax Reforms Could Work
1) International Carbon Price Floor (IMF Proposal)
The IMF has long advocated for an International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF), where major economies agree to a minimum carbon price (e.g., ~$75/tonne by 2030). This could ensure global emission cuts while allowing countries to set their own carbon policies. Different carbon price floors could be applied to different countries to distribute the burden more equitably. This would also reduce tensions regarding border-adjustment measures. (imf.org)
2) Windfall/Solidarity Tax—Lessons from the EU
During the energy price surge of 2022 – 2023, the EU imposed an EU-wide solidarity contribution on the fossil fuel sector, which many analysts consider a windfall tax. According to the European Commission, this generated an additional €28 billion in public revenue, indicating that redirecting profits during crises is possible. The UK has also extended its Energy Profit Levy until 2029. (taxnews.ey.com)
3) Sectoral Levy: Shipping/Aviation and High-Emitting Industries
Proposals like the Bridgetown Initiative 3.0 support sectoral levies on high-emitting industries such as shipping and aviation, along with international taxes on financial transactions and windfall profits from fossil fuels. This could help create a permanent finance stream for climate-vulnerable nations. (bridgetown-initiative.org)
4) Global Financial Architecture Reform
Reforming global financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and MDBs (Multilateral Development Banks) to lower capital costs and unlock trillions of dollars for climate action is crucial. The Bridgetown Framework and the 2023–24 G20 agenda have made these reforms mainstream in the global climate conversation. (carnegieendowment.org)
What Does This Mean for Developing Countries?
- Climate Finance and Justice: Despite the $300 billion/year target set by COP29, predictable and low-cost finance will be crucial for developing countries to adapt to climate change. (wri.org)
- Energy Security and Policy: Measures like ICPF could ensure that developing countries’ energy security and development priorities are not compromised. (imf.org)
- Credibility of Targets: COP28’s language of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels will now need to be delivered with clear plans for investment, policy, and just transitions (including creating new jobs). (unfccc.int)
The Real Test of COP30
COP30 will be a test for new NDCs, finance delivery, and just transition commitments. While direct global taxes or restrictions on companies may not come out of COP30, IMF-style carbon price floors, windfall taxes, and Bridgetown-inspired financial reforms could provide a framework for redirecting profits into climate solutions. COP28 and COP29 set the direction; COP30 will prove whether the world can move from statements to budgets quickly enough. (wri.org)
Sources and Further Reading:
- COP30 Dates and References, UNFCCC/UN. (unfccc.int)
- COP28 “Transitioning Away” Language. (unfccc.int)
- COP29 $300bn/yr Finance Goal. (unfccc.int)
- EU New Target for COP30. (reuters.com)
- Chatham House on “Global Tax Reform”. (chathamhouse.org)
- IMF ICPF, Bridgetown 3.0, Windfall Tax Evidence. (imf.org)
